Strategy Resources
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Fourth Turning Scenario Planning
A practical foresight method for leaders: isolate the forces reshaping your sector, build a small set of plausible, divergent futures, then pressure-test strategy and find the no-regret moves that hold across every one.
Boards are being asked to commit capital, reorganise teams, and reprice their core business against an AI future nobody can forecast. The honest answer to “what will happen?” is that no single answer is credible — which is exactly why scenario planning, not forecasting, is the right tool. This guide gives you a practical method: isolate the forces that will actually reshape your sector, build a small set of plausible, divergent futures, write them vividly enough to argue with, then pressure-test your strategy against each and find the moves that pay off no matter which one arrives. It is grounded in the Strauss-Howe “Fourth Turning” thesis — that we are in a high-stakes, institution-resetting era — but kept rigorous and applied, with a worked example for a mid-market firm facing AI disruption.
What's inside
- 01Why now, and why this turning is different
- 02Scenario planning is not forecasting
- 03The method: from driving forces to critical uncertainties
- 04Writing scenarios people will actually argue with
- 05Signposts: turning scenarios into an early-warning system
- 06Wind-tunnelling: pressure-testing strategy against each world
- 07No-regret moves and option-creating bets
- 08A worked example: a mid-market professional-services firm
- 09Running it with your leadership team, and the failure modes
Includes 6 cited references and worked examples, written in plain language you can act on.
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